General Long Range Forecast

I tend to update the General Long Range Forecast a bit more frequently, so it is a good one to have access to…  It is also a bit more “generalized” over a wider area.  To sign up for it, please click here:

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3 comments on “General Long Range Forecast
  1. Trent Radel says:

    My family has a cattle business in central Queensland, Australia. Do you only forecast for the Colorado region of the US? Eastern Australia is currently experiencing a very severe drought after having record breaking rainfall in 2010 and we have been warned that the likelihood of an El Nino going into our spring is high.
    Is the movement of warm/cool water in the Pacific Ocean what you base your predictions on?

    • Brian Bledsoe says:

      I do use oceanic circulations to determine my forecast and pair that with modelling and history. A traditional El Nino will not occur this year, but rather a variation of El Nino. The type of El Nino that we will likely see is called a Modoki El Nino. The warmest water favors the central Pacific Ocean instead of the eastern Pacific Ocean. The closest year in recent memory that fits with what we could potentially see here in the US is 2009-10. There was a Modoki El Nino during that time… I would have to look into this further and could do that for you if you are interested. I have several clients here in the US that I do long range forecast work for, and would certainly be willing to do that for you. Thanks for coming to my site! How did you hear about me and my services? Thanks!

    • Brian Bledsoe says:

      There are also some indications that with the state of the Indian Ocean, that southern Australia may see enhanced rainfall for your spring. Strong El Nino is not going to happen and never was going to happen, despite “expert” claims early in the year.

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